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Risk management

Introduction

In order to ensure long-run sustainability in this dynamic industry, it is very essential for any organisation to assess the risk factors associated with it and develop risk management strategies accordingly to overcome the potential risks. The report below is going to portray the potential financial risk parameters that the client petrochemical organisation EMR is passing through or likely to come across by analysing the current economic status of this company and by assessing risk factors associated with their current business development framework. Additionally, the needful solutions would be provided following which EMR can restructure their risk management planning to get rid of the potential threats.

Impact of key variable on progressive growth

1. GDP (growth rate)

The worth of Gross Domestic products is almost 4872.14 billion dollars in 2017in Japan. The GDP of the country represents almost 7.86 % in the whole world’s economy. It is evident from the national report of the country that GDP in Japan has ranged in an average of 2704.95 billion from 1960 to 2017 (Japan GDP, 2018). Currently, it is reaching on all time high of 6203.21 billion dollar in the year 2012 with low evident in 1960, which is 44.31 billion. The economic stagnation in the country during last two decades is due to main two principle reasons. In one hand, the country has the pressure of handling a huge amount of aging population. On the other hand, a large amount of public debt has been built up due to the on and off deflation. Therefore fiscal consolidation is the key concern of the country rather than maintaining their higher GDP growth (The Japanese economy at a glance, 2018).

2. Inflation

Based upon the current economy of the country, the government have undertaken the controlling of Consumer Price Index. CPI indicates inflation, as it has a direct proportional relationship with inflation. Along with that the GDP has also concerned with controlling the inflation of the economy. A good control over the GDP can help to bring an improved inflation by adjusting it. The demographic scenario therefore, needs to be improved for bringing a positive change in the country. It can be expected that it will bring a positive impact on overall productivity and effective to reduce the economic burden of the country from the cost of diseases.

3. Unemployment

The unemployment rate of the country has reduced to 2.40 from 2.50% from November to December in 2018. The all time high unemployment rate was 5.50% in the year 2002 and a record 1% in November 1958 (Japan Unemployment rate, 2018). From that aspect, the overall growth in the employment rate is quite remarkable. The country has been developed a lot by its own way for developing technology, and other industrial business for get a good control over the total economy of the country.

Figure 1: Unemployment rate of Japan from 2008 to 2018

(Source: Japan: Unemployment rate from 2008 to 2018, 2019)

4. Trade balance

Japan has been documented to have a trade deficit of Japanese yen is 55.3 billion, which has been evident in December 2018 to 356.2 billion a year earlier. This trade gap has been balanced by the help of rising export by the country. Similarly, they have also imported essential goods for business by planning scientifically. Among the major trade partners record amount of import increases with US that is almost 23.9%, Australia with 7.9%, EU 2% and UK 14.9% and so on (Japan Trade Balance, 2019).

5. Budget balance

In the government budget balance it has been found that there is a budget deficit by -9.50% of GDP in 2018. This signifies that the government has disabled to get back a similar or more amount than they spent. The maximum spending of the government has been utilised in military and asylum expenses. That portrays the growing rate of deteriorated health condition of the overall population that affects the economy of overall country (Japan Government Budget, 2019).

Figure 2: Budget balance by Japan Government

(Source:Japan Government Budget, 2019)

6. Exchange rate

The exchange rate plays a significant role in ensuring that Bank can build a firm business in terms of banking. It has been witness that exchange rate in Japan fluctuating continuously that may create problem in operating business as well as providing quality services positively. Most of the time, it has been witness that exchange rate fluctuated at the rate of 0.54% that reduce the sustainable growth of company (Tradingeconomics.com, 2019).

Figure 1: Exchange rate

(Source: Tradingeconomics.com, 2019)

7. Budget deficit

Budget deficit is one of the important factors to determine whether company successfully able to run its business or not. According to the trading economic global macro model, it has been witness that government budget in Japan by the end of this quarter is expected to be -4.40 % of GDP. Therefore, it can be stated that it is difficult to gain competitive advantage in context to bank.

Figure 1: Japan Government Budget

(Source: Tradingeconomics.com, 2019)

8. Savings rate

The gross saving rate is updated quarterly, which is available from March 1980 to March 2017. It has been witness that the average rate of saving rate is 26.9% that implies that consumers get maximum outcome. On contradictory, the minimum gross saving rate has been measured in 26.2 in March 2017. Hence, it can be stated that there is great scope to establish business for any bank positively.

Figure 2: Japan Gross saving rate

(Source: Tradingeconomics.com, 2019)

9. Employment rate

According to the report by Trading economic, it has been evident that the unemployment rate in Japan is decreased to 2.40% in 2018 from 2.50% in November. On the other hand, the average rate of unemployment is 2.73% from 1953 to 2018; the highest unemployment rate has been identified in 2002 i.e., 5.50 and lowest to 1% in 1968 (Country-data.com, 2019). It signifies that bank wills not faces difficulties in finding skill ad expert employment that eventually reflect on its fiscal performance.

Figure: Japan Unemployment Rate

(Source: Tradingeconomics.com, 2019)

10. Currency movement

Currency movement is one of the essential factors to understand future perspective of bank along with sustainable growth. It has been evident that after Euroand US dollar, Japanese yen hasranked third in traded currency in the world that reflects progressive growth of company. On the other hand, Japanese Yen is the national currency, which has in Nominal GDP and ranked third in national economy (Dailyfx.com, 2019). Therefore, it can clearly be asserted that operating and establishing business with respect to bank is easy as compared to other bank.

11. Monetary and fiscal policy

Monetary policy refers to availability, regulation and cost of credit whereas fiscal policy deals with government taxes, debt and expenditure to ensure the progressive growth of company positively. According to the report by trade economy, it has been found that government fixed investment in loan and infrastructure is related to public and private enterprises is only 15% of GNP that support bank to seek the attention of consumer.

From the above data and statics, it can be asserted that the annual inflation rate is also an important factor that creates problem in operating business positively. It has been found that there is an increment of 5% in inflation rate in the year 2015 that reduces sustainable development of company (Tradingeconomics.com, 2019).On the other hand, a large amount of public debt has been built up due to the on and off deflation. Therefore fiscal consolidation is the key concern of the country rather than maintaining their higher GDP growth

On Contradictory, it is important for company to consider possible risk related to employees in order to ensure that business can achieve its desired vision. In 2012, the unemployment rate in Japan was only 2%, which is comparatively low (Ceicdata.com, 2019). According to the report by trading economic global, it has been witness that the interest rate is 2% that signifies that there is a high risk to establish business in Japan (Ceicdata.com, 2019).

Conclusion

From the above discussion, a conclusion can be drawn that EMR needs to chip away at improving their market situated at the primary spot for using oil prospects for supporting the exposures. They have to break down the requests of the intended interest group regarding both reasonableness and adaptability in the business terms and states of EMR. In view of shopper request, they can take needful changes in their task advancement methodologies which additionally would enable them to realize effective changes in their valuing procedures. The intended interest group of EMR fundamental differs between medium-high to low-end who is considered as the most value delicate fragment and the evaluating of the items impacts their acquiring choice as it were. They additionally need to focus upon motivating their employees through fulfilling their motivational needs the reason because it is very difficult for the employees to adopt these rapid changes easily and hence the workforce must be focused, highly motivated and goal-oriented so that the organisation can implement the strategic risk management planning effectively.